Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
